Digital Prognostications

BH
Posted By
Beth_Haney
Dec 4, 2003
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650
Replies
37
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Closed
I ran across this link on another forum. It makes for interesting reading for those of you who can understand all of the stuff! Also note there’s a link to his predictions for the year 2003 and how close he came. It was kind of a fun read.

<http://www.bythom.com/2004predictions.htm>

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DS
Dick_Smith
Dec 4, 2003
In a word, fascinating. The only problem is it tends to freeze you from making a buying decision in the short term.

Thanks for the link Beth

Dick
LM
Lou_M
Dec 4, 2003
Great reading, Beth.

Looks like my family and my wife’s family bet on the wrong horse oh-so-many years ago (I have a Pentax; she has a Minolta), seeing this quote from the article:

At least two traditional camera companies fold (perhaps they get acquired instead). Will it be Mamiya, Pentax, Minolta/Konica, Leica, Hasselblad (though the name might live on via their Japanese partner), Rollei, Bronica, or Horseman?
MM
Mac_McDougald
Dec 4, 2003
Not mentioned there, but already announced:
Kodak is ceasing slide projector manufacure in 2004.
That’s a pretty telling factoid.

Mac
GD
Grant_Dixon
Dec 4, 2003
Very interesting although I suspect a tad optimistic, or pessimistic depending on the side or the fence you are on. Kodak is now selling a Nikon based 21 meg full frame digi but it is having mushy reviews at a terrible price. In my opinion at the rate DSLR are improving I will have about 3 years of productive use of my F5. At that point I will seriously consider switching and while my body may be shelved the optics I have should make the transition. I hope 😉

Grant
ML
Marty_Landolt
Dec 4, 2003
MAC D, Several years ago (15-20) it was near impossible to find a bulb for a Slide Projector…then I noticed even the projector itself
became a rare item.
Then..What to my wondering eyes should appear but…a brand new model Slide Projector. Now I thought I could breath easier.
Back to square one…do I need to rush out and get one of the new projectors and a dozen bulbs???

DICK S,
I’ll repeat what someone else said on this forum. If we wait on all the new and better stuff we’ll still be waiting in 2025 (that is, the ones who are still around then)
I’m about to buy a new camera (Nikon 5700) and if it lasts 3 or 4 years I can buy the lower priced SLR. The catch here is that my one dollar will be worth less and I’ll still be paying big bucks.

BETH,
That was a nice article and his predictions were not too surprising. Thanks for bringing my attention to it.
MM
Mac_McDougald
Dec 4, 2003
… Now I thought I could breath easier.
Back to square one…do I need to rush out and get one of the new projectors and a dozen bulbs???

Oh, there’ll be bulbs around for a long time, maybe "forever". Kodak themselves have stated they’ll still provide projector parts for another 3 years or so, if I remember correctly.

Mac
LK
Leen_Koper
Dec 4, 2003
Probably a good time to buy a second hand projection screens. They make a wonderful reflector and usually include a stand.

Nevertheless the anouncement of a new >20mp Nikon and/or Fuji S3 makes me quite happy. Loading, archiving and processing however will take more time than ever before.

Leen
JH
Jim_Hess
Dec 4, 2003
My sister-in-law came to our house to visit a few months ago, and she was sporting a new Pentax 5 megapixel digital camera. I had been shooting with a two megapixel for a couple of years, but I was becoming frustrated with the camera design and had been thinking about getting something different and this little Pentax seemed to be exactly what I wanted. So I purchased one, and within two months it was obsolete. It doesn’t change the fact that the camera takes wonderful pictures. And I really like the camera. But why is it that no matter how carefully I shop I always seem to end up with something obsolete or else paid too much for it? The problem with this digital marketplace is that things change so quickly that there is no way any of us will ever be able to remain current unless we have some very deep pockets. Even though the article suggests that Pentax might be one of the companies to go under, I’m sure I will be able to get support for my camera until I eventually purchase something else. I’m still waiting for the six megapixel SLR digitals to get down into the $500 range. And I suspect that will happen within the next couple of years. And even if that doesn’t happen I guess I just keep shooting with what I have. I haven’t even begun to touch all of the features that are available to me.
JF
Jodi_Frye
Dec 6, 2003
Jim, I know what you are saying.
My philosophy ; It’s always best to buy the best of what you can afford every time you shop for something new ( camera seems to be the key in this forum ;)). This way you’ll be happy t’il the next time you feel the need to upgrade and remain content throughout your blessed life. 🙂 No way in heck anyone can keep up with technology….man on the moon in ’69 you say ?? Geeze, haven’t been back since though…hmmm, wonder why that is.
GD
Grant_Dixon
Dec 6, 2003
I suspect you will see a willingness to get involved in space and maybe a semi-permanent base on the moon now that the Chinese are making headways into space. Can’t let the communist hordes beat US to the punch you know. 😉

Grant
BH
Beth_Haney
Dec 6, 2003
Well, according to the California Cheese Commission (or whatever it’s called!), nobody has been back to the moon because our astronauts found out it wasn’t made out of green cheese after all, so there’s no point in going back. 🙂
JF
Jodi_Frye
Dec 6, 2003
Beth, lmao…yes, that was it.

Well, the buggy is being sent back to Mars, a new and improved model since i guess they lost the last one…ha ha..our millions of tax dollars at hand..but that’s Ok I’m fine with this ( there could be worse ways to spend it )…anyways, it will be picking up speciments and we may finally have proof that mars once had life…much like our splendid planet. I can’t wait to get the details…in a year or two ;( They may even come up with some data about what actually happened that ended that planets force. Then again, that would be saying that i had complete faith in what they say…a little. I find it difficult to believe that Dinosaurs became extinct due to a big rock that hit our planet. Many life forms survived so why did the big Dino’s go hungry ?? More to it..imo. Moon landings and big rocks….hmmmm
LM
Lou_M
Dec 6, 2003
that would be saying that i had complete faith in what they say

Way back in May, Chris Rankin had a thread going about whether digital photography/editing is "real" photography. In the ensuing discussion on what is real/believable and what isn’t, Barbara Brundage recommended the movie "Wag the Dog" and I *finally* got around to seeing it tonight. I didn’t know whether to laugh or cry. The movie cuts both ways–it was released just weeks before the whole Monica Lewinsky thing, and it could be viewed as the basis for the whole Iraq War. Scary, very scary.
SR
Schraven_Robert
Dec 6, 2003
Now that everything is digital I have difficulty believing anything that comes from any government authority.

Watch those chinese, give them a few years and they’ll be pointing the way forward.

Robert
LK
Leen_Koper
Dec 6, 2003
I never instantly believed anything that was officially supposed to be the truth by any governement.
I ‘ve to bring in mind two photographic "facts" presented by two different governements as the truth:
The Stalin regime in Russia presented different images from the same people attending the May parade in Moscow. As time went by various people disappeared subsequently from the same photograph and all images were presented as the truth at that time.
Someone from a friendly nation showed images of biological weapon laboratories in Iraq to prove Saddam had these weapons ready to use.
Until now, despite they needed this "smoking gun" to justify the invasion, nobody has been able to find any trace of these labs.

These images tell us George Orwell was almost right, although he planned this to happen in 1984.

However, there is another truth too. Another "created truth". And that’s the truth we, true photoshop addicts, create by enhancing our images to create a new and better world, our personal world. These images tell us about how we think our world should be and this way our photographs tell us who we really are.
This is the same truth we can find in the John Lennon song "Imagine". This truth is more important to me personally than any of the by Stalin or Bush manipulated ones. Power corrupts, love doesnot.

They say I’m a dreamer and I’m not the only one…

Leen
JF
Jodi_Frye
Dec 6, 2003
Leen, I’ll be seeing ya up there 😉
GD
Grant_Dixon
Dec 8, 2003
"…a little. I find it difficult to believe that Dinosaurs became extinct due to a big rock that hit our planet. Many life forms survived so why did the big Dino’s go hungry ?? "

Jodi

I just read a very interesting article in the December issue of Scientific American about the extinction of the dinosaurs and it answers all the questions that you were afraid to ask 😉 Want me to send you a copy of it.


Grant
MT
Michelle_Thomas
Dec 8, 2003
Grant I know you weren’t talking to me, but may I have a copy please?

TIA,

Michelle
JF
Jodi_Frye
Dec 8, 2003
Do I really want to know ??? I mean, is it truth or mere guesstimate ? Do I want the truth ? I can’t always handle the truth 😉 My theory before you send it to me…that big rock that struck earth was part of mars that had been hit by an asteroid and projected to our planet. It carried microbes filled with species that carried diseases that the big Dino’s could not cope with. The same disease that killed off life on Mars. The disease was probably created by man during a nuclear warfare….on mars….thus we follow in the same path only to destroy our world over a political battles. Ya far fetched but who knows.
GD
Grant_Dixon
Dec 8, 2003
Jodi

Even I choke trying to swallow that story you spin 😉

As for is it the truth! Is there truth are there absolutes? Scientist don’t speak about truths but "models" and this is the best model to date.

Grant

P.S. Little hint: Mars has not been in a congenial long enough to produce high forms of life. The gospel according to Grant
GD
Grant_Dixon
Dec 8, 2003
Michelle

Send me your email and I will send it to you.

Grant
DS
Dick_Smith
Dec 8, 2003
Grant,

What’s a ‘congenial’?

Dick
GD
Grant_Dixon
Dec 8, 2003
It is probably a great word if my fingers finished what my brain was thinking

Should read … Mars has not been in a congenial state long enough to produce high forms of life.

Meaning the conditions were not agreeable for a long enough period to produce higher forms of life.

wrote in message
Grant,

What’s a ‘congenial’?

Dick
JF
Jodi_Frye
Dec 8, 2003

P.S. Did you mean congenital ?

My favorite term that was spoken to my Mother many years ago by a not so close friend of hers " How could you possibly know ! " …. 😉 ( I love picking on her about that …after all these years…it was about moose droppings by the way )

anyways, it’s all about how we view life as we know it. Billions of people and we would all tell a different story. Will we ever know ? Does it/will it matter ? Let’s hope not.
GD
Grant_Dixon
Dec 8, 2003
wrote in message

…. Will we ever know ? Does it/will it matter ?

It is not the destination that is as important as the trip! We strive to know and that is important …. well to me it is.

Grant

P.S. I once told Christopher (my son) that curiosity killed the cat and he shot back "Ah but what did the cat want to know?" and I knew I had raised him properly.
JF
Jodi_Frye
Dec 8, 2003
yes, of course we want to know…..but not really…know what I mean ? Questions left without answers keeps the mind alert. To know would be the ending.
JF
Jodi_Frye
Dec 8, 2003
oh wait, this thread is getting too good,…let’s disguise it to keep it …. huuuuummmmmm, what is digital imaging ???
RC
Richard_Coencas
Dec 8, 2003
Grant and Jodi,

If you are interested in the subject of Dinosaur extinctions and things that might end the world as we know it, let me recommend Bill Bryson’s "A Short History of Nearly Everything". A fun read, in a depressing sort of way.

Rich
JF
Jodi_Frye
Dec 9, 2003
Richard, a fun read in a depressing sort of way ? I don’t think I could handle that….sounds too much like my life 😉
JH
Joe_Henry1000
Dec 9, 2003
However, there is another truth too. Another "created truth". And that’s the truth we, true photoshop addicts, create by enhancing our images to create a new and better world, our personal world. These images tell us about how we think our world should be and this way our photographs tell us who we really are. This is the same truth we can find in the John Lennon song "Imagine".
This truth is more important to me personally than any of the by Stalin or Bush manipulated ones. Power corrupts, love doesnot.

They say I’m a dreamer and I’m not the only one…

Very well put Leen! and no you’re not the only one <cranks up iTunes to listen to "Imagine" for the millionth time>

It is not the destination that is as important as the trip!

Words to live by Grant.

Joe
NS
Nancy_S
Dec 9, 2003
I agree with Rich…read the book, his style is engaging and he covers a lot of ground. Try it, you’ll like it. In fact I sent out 6 copies as presents for Christmas this year.
LM
Lou_M
Dec 9, 2003
Hey, is that the "A Walk in the Woods" Bill Bryson? If so, that history of everything book’ll be a great read. Very engaging writer.
MT
Michelle_Thomas
Dec 9, 2003
Grant,

I sent you an email.

TIA,

Michelle
SR
Schraven_Robert
Dec 9, 2003
I believe that the theory goes that it is not just the rock that killed off the dino’s but in relation with the rock earth’s oxygen levels dropped dramatically because of all the plants dying as a result of the dust clouds across the earth blocking out the sunlight. Then the oxygen levels were much higher than now.

As a result the dino’s not only found less to no food but they also were running short on oxgen to run their terribly energy ineffficient bodies.
If they were not starving they were suffocating.

The combination of the two killed them off where as mamals and insects, small as they are could survive even with lower oxygen levels wheras their food supplies were untouched as they needed tiny amounts of it in relation to dino’s thus developing into the new dominant species on this earth.

Robert
SS
Susan_S.
Dec 9, 2003
Lou – yes it is. If you read a lot of popular science like I do, then there wasn’t much new in the book, but it is very entertainingly written. (His stuff on the English language – "Mother Tongue" and American popular culture "Made in America" is also well worth seeking out – better than his travel books I think._

Ain’t thread drift a wonderful thing….

Susan S.
LK
Leen_Koper
Dec 9, 2003
Robert, some people seem to prefer mating without breath. 😉 BTW, I don’t.

Leen
JF
Jodi_Frye
Dec 9, 2003
Grant, my reply to your mail bounced back and my reply was ‘yyup’.

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